Back in July if I were speculating what a Mets turnaround would look like, I might have said the following:
- The bullpen has to stop blowing games
- Ryan Church has to be the player he was before the injury
- Carlos Beltran has to catch fire and carry this team on his back
None of those things happened.
Instead the Mets got turnarounds from:
- The starting pitching. “Bad Ollie” disappeared. Pelfrey blossomed. And Johan went from Good to Great.
- Carlos Delgado, who caught fire and carried this team on his back.
- The defense. The Mets made just 5 errors in their last 35 games, an average of 1 error every 7 games. Before that they made 67 errors in 102 games, or about 4 errors every 7 games.
- The replacement players. Fernando Tatis had an even hotter July than Delgado (though with fewer at bats). And have I mentioned how much I love Daniel Murphy?
I suspect the defensive turnaround is part of something larger. First, there’s the virtuous circle of pitcher’s throwing more strikes because they trust the defense to make plays, and the defense making more plays because they’re kept more alert by a strike-throwing pitcher. But I also suspect that the greatly improved defense is part of a larger picture of players keeping their heads in the game and playing the game right. Remember that old Pelfrey 1-0 loss where Castillo didn’t run out a 2-out fly ball that fell in and therefore didn’t score, Reyes got caught trying to take third, and Beltran got doubled off to end the game? Now we’re seeing Beltran steal second when the game is on the line. Yesterday Reyes correctly (I think) chose not to take the extra base on three borderline plays and then correctly choosing to score on a fly ball to shallow center. I don’t have the numbers, but they seem to be just be playing the game right.
How much credit do Manuel and Warthen deserve? Warthen made some changes with Perez and Pelfrey, allowing them to do things that Peterson forbade.
More generally, Manuel is managing somewhat differently than Randolph. Manuel is very results oriented. Reserves that play well are rewarded with starts. Guys that can’t give 100% are not welcome on the roster. The pitchers were challenged to throw strikes and go deep into games.
Randolph was quite different. Back in 2005 it took time for Wright to work his way towards the top of the lineup, because Randolph believed that you earned these slots based on performance in past years. Manuel does not favor the veterans. You earn the spot by what you did yesterday. Randolph managed off the field issues. When he first arrived he ordered everybody to shave their facial hair, as a team bonding experience. Peterson insisted that Perez and Pelfrey do things his way – Perez throwing from the side of the rubber, Pelfrey dropping his curveball. Warthen allowed Perez and Pelfrey some leeway in doing what they thought would work.
It’s been said that Delgado might have been annoyed at Randolph for dropping him in the lineup. But Manuel might have done worse. He announced that he was going to use Tatis as a defensive replacement for Delgado. But Delgado didn’t react as negatively to Manuel as he did to Randolph. Perhaps Delgado appreciated that with Manuel it was all about performance, and then Manuel would bump him all the way to the cleanup spot if he started hitting like a cleanup hitter.
The other area where we saw Manuel taking more control was in forcing guys to sit and pressuring guys to play. Randolph was criticized for letting Reyes and Wright talk him out of days off. Manuel’s tenure started memorably by taking Reyes out of the game when he appeared hurt. He’s forced guys to take days off. And he’s pressured guys like Castro to play hurt, and guys like Castillo to go to the DL rather than give 80%. I suspect that if the Mets trainers told Manuel that Pedro could only pitch every 6th day, Manuel would insist that Pedro either sign on to throw every 5th day or stay on the DL. Of course, some of Manuel’s decisions may result from learning from last year’s failures.
Back to the original question. Would the Mets have turned it around under Randolph? I suspect that if Randolph and Peterson were still running things:
- Perez and Pelfrey would still be struggling (though Pelfrey did have some good starts under the old administration)
- The starters would still be throwing fewer strikes, issuing more walks, and throwing fewer innings
- Castillo would still be playing at half speed
- The defense would still be shaky
- Delgado would not have turned around as dramatically
We can never know for sure what would have been. But I think there’s good reason to think that Manuel and Warthen did indeed instigate much of the Mets’ turnaround.
