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Top 10: Why Baseball Fans Make the Best Managers

Great post on Managing Greatness about why baseball fans make the best managers.

The 2008 Mets in Context

Each year from 2002-2004 the Mets finished at least 25 games back. The Randolph – Minaya era turned that around, improving from 20 games under .500 to 4 games over in their first year. Then 97-65 (103-69 if you include the postseason) and the verge of the pennant, and then a 33-17 start to ‘07. And then just like that it all fell apart. After that 130 – 82 stretch (.613 winning percentage) the Mets went 89-92 for the rest of Randolph’s tenure, including the infamous ‘07 collapse. The Mets ran their mediocre stretch 17 games into Jerry Manuel’s tenure, to reach 97 – 101. Then they turned it back around, going 47-29 through the end of the season. Or said a bit differently, they went on a 40-19 streak to take a 3 1/2 game lead with 17 to go, before going 7-10 to miss the playoffs.

The 2007 and 2008 collapses were far too similar for anybody to ignore: peaking their divisional lead with 17 to play and then immediately dropping, and culminating in the final weekend hosting the Marlins where they entered tied, lost the first (while the Phils or Brewers won) to drop one back, winning the next behind a tremendous pitching performance (while the Phils / Brewers lost) to tie it, and then losing the finale while the other team won to go home losers. While we’re at it, the final game was also similar to the last game of 2006, with Oliver Perez starting on 3 days rest and getting the no decision, Chavez making a dramatic catch to keep the game tied for the 7th inning stretch, the bullpen giving up 2 runs on homers, and finally ending the season with the tying run at the plate or on base.

Many have pointed out that the 2008 collapse was not as bad (7-10 is not 5-12, a 3 1/2 game lead is not a 7 game lead) and was more excusable (the 2008 team suffered far more injuries), but the biggest problem with both teams is that from June of 2007 through June of 2008 the Mets were a below 500 team. After playing 600 ball in 2006, the 2007-2008 Mets went 33-17, then 97-101, and finally 47-29.

So here’s my summary of 2008: The Mets were so bad in the first half of the year that even a fantastic turnaround left them with insufficient cushion for when they got some bad luck. Similarly, the 2007 analyses also over-focused on the 17 game collapse, ignoring the awful stretch that started at the end of May.

All those who chanted MVP for Carlos Delgado IMO missed the key point. Had anybody besides David Wright and Johan Santana played the entire season, the Mets would have clinched the division a few weeks ago, regardless of injuries.

I addressed this a bit in my post on the Manuel – Warthen turnaround. I think the ton of errors the Mets made during the dry spell compared to the great defense the Mets played after was symptomatic of a 208 game stretch of badly played baseball by what should have been a great team.

In short, the 08 Mets were done in by the following overlapping pieces, in order of importance:

• Dreadful, sloppy, uninspired play for the first half of the season when the Mets should have been building up a nice lead, and instead fell far behind
• A historically bad bullpen (despite a nice start by Wagner)
• Lots of injuries. Didn’t expect that Alou, Castillo, Pedro, El Duque, Duaner Sanchez, and Billy Wagner would all be 100% all season, but I (perhaps naively) expected more than we got. But then Ryan Church and John Maine. And then Tatis who replaced Pagan who replaced Alou. And Easley who replaced Castillo. In fairness, the Mets stars remained (relatively) healthy. I strongly suspect Beltran has a bum left leg that hurts him when hitting lefty, but that’s just me. As a whole the Mets’ 5 stars were enormous this year.

Back to the point of this post, the 2008 Mets in context. The dreadful 208 game stretch prevented the 2007 and 2008 Mets from doing what they were clearly talented enough to do. Going away (presumably) are Pedro, El Duque, Wagner, and Alou, freeing up about $28 million this offseason and Wagner’s money next offseason. One more year (at least) for Delgado.

On the other side, Pelfrey had a breakout year. Murphy was very promising, and will probably be the Mets’ second baseman next year. Nick Evans will probably get a lot of starts with the Mets next year, and in 2010 he may compete with Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church for a corner outfield spot and with Mike Carp for first base.

Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Santana make a remarkable group of core stars who should be the nucleus of this team for at least another three years, hopefully much longer. Santana, Pelfrey, and a hopefully healthy John Maine should make a very impressive top of the rotation. The position players may be the best in the NL at the plate, on the basepaths, and on defense. Wagner and Castillo have the only bad contracts, and the  damage there is limited. I assume after this year’s problems the Mets will invest seriously in their bullpen, and they need to do something for the bottom of their rotation.

2007 and 2008 were lost years, years that the Mets should have been the best team in the NL but weren’t. The biggest problem was neither injuries nor nerves, but rather an extended bout of uninspired play. Somebody really should study why the Mets went from great to lousy beginning May 30, 2007. Maybe it’s the Benitez curse: the night before the slide the Mets had a dramatic 12 inning victory where Reyes got the unfairly despised former Met reliver to balk him home with the tying run and then Delgado hit the next pitch over the fence to end the game.

Looking forward: with their 25 year old phenoms, Santana, Beltran, Maine, Pelfrey, and perhaps Murphy, the Mets should have the core to be the team they should have been the past 2 years — and maybe even better.

Everywhere you go, always take the weather

So tonite’s game may get cut short by a major storm. And I got to thinking … aren’t there tropical islands where it rains predictably at a certain time everyday? What if the Mets moved there and started all games 2 hours before the rains. 90 minutes before the rains when Pedro starts.

Black Bat Crossed Their Paths

39 years after a black cat walking through Shea Stadium reversed the fortunes of the Mets and Cubs, Johan Santana provides the sequel. On what should have been a 1-6-3 double play, his broken black bat flew out in the same direction as the ball, and a little faster. The pitcher flinched because of the bat and missed the ball, and then the ball struck the bat on the infield grass, creating a hop the shortstop couldn’t handle. All hands were safe, and they scored the tying runs on Wright’s single. Next inning Delgado’s bloop is just fair and just out of reach, Castro’s roller gets him on base and the error on the play scores the go ahead run. The rest of the inning includes Murphy’s pinch (pulled) single (go Murph!!) and Reyes becomes only the second Met to reach 200 hits in a season, doing it in style with a 3 run triple. If the Mets keep playing well, this game and the black bat will be remembered as the turning point, both because of their actual effect on the game, and because of the perceived psychological effect of starting to feel like the fates were lining up on our side.

Let’s Go Mets!!

The Manuel – Warthen Turnaround

Back in July if I were speculating what a Mets turnaround would look like, I might have said the following:

• The bullpen has to stop blowing games
• Ryan Church has to be the player he was before the injury
• Carlos Beltran has to catch fire and carry this team on his back

None of those things happened.

Instead the Mets got turnarounds from:

• The starting pitching. “Bad Ollie” disappeared. Pelfrey blossomed. And Johan went from Good to Great.
• Carlos Delgado, who caught fire and carried this team on his back.
• The defense. The Mets made just 5 errors in their last 35 games, an average of 1 error every 7 games. Before that they made 67 errors in 102 games, or about 4 errors every 7 games.
• The replacement players. Fernando Tatis had an even hotter July than Delgado (though with fewer at bats). And have I mentioned how much I love Daniel Murphy?

I suspect the defensive turnaround is part of something larger. First, there’s the virtuous circle of pitcher’s throwing more strikes because they trust the defense to make plays, and the defense making more plays because they’re kept more alert by a strike-throwing pitcher. But I also suspect that the greatly improved defense is part of a larger picture of players keeping their heads in the game and playing the game right. Remember that old Pelfrey 1-0 loss where Castillo didn’t run out a 2-out fly ball that fell in and therefore didn’t score, Reyes got caught trying to take third, and Beltran got doubled off to end the game? Now we’re seeing Beltran steal second when the game is on the line. Yesterday Reyes correctly (I think) chose not to take the extra base on three borderline plays and then correctly choosing to score on a fly ball to shallow center. I don’t have the numbers, but they seem to be just be playing the game right.

How much credit do Manuel and Warthen deserve? Warthen made some changes with Perez and Pelfrey, allowing them to do things that Peterson forbade.

More generally, Manuel is managing somewhat differently than Randolph. Manuel is very results oriented. Reserves that play well are rewarded with starts. Guys that can’t give 100% are not welcome on the roster. The pitchers were challenged to throw strikes and go deep into games.

Randolph was quite different. Back in 2005 it took time for Wright to work his way towards the top of the lineup, because Randolph believed that you earned these slots based on performance in past years. Manuel does not favor the veterans. You earn the spot by what you did yesterday. Randolph managed off the field issues. When he first arrived he ordered everybody to shave their facial hair, as a team bonding experience. Peterson insisted that Perez and Pelfrey do things his way – Perez throwing from the side of the rubber, Pelfrey dropping his curveball. Warthen allowed Perez and Pelfrey some leeway in doing what they thought would work.

It’s been said that Delgado might have been annoyed at Randolph for dropping him in the lineup. But Manuel might have done worse. He announced that he was going to use Tatis as a defensive replacement for Delgado. But Delgado didn’t react as negatively to Manuel as he did to Randolph. Perhaps Delgado appreciated that with Manuel it was all about performance, and then Manuel would bump him all the way to the cleanup spot if he started hitting like a cleanup hitter.

The other area where we saw Manuel taking more control was in forcing guys to sit and pressuring guys to play. Randolph was criticized for letting Reyes and Wright talk him out of days off. Manuel’s tenure started memorably by taking Reyes out of the game when he appeared hurt. He’s forced guys to take days off. And he’s pressured guys like Castro to play hurt, and guys like Castillo to go to the DL rather than give 80%. I suspect that if the Mets trainers told Manuel that Pedro could only pitch every 6^th day, Manuel would insist that Pedro either sign on to throw every 5^th day or stay on the DL. Of course, some of Manuel’s decisions may result from learning from last year’s failures.

Back to the original question. Would the Mets have turned it around under Randolph? I suspect that if Randolph and Peterson were still running things:

• Perez and Pelfrey would still be struggling (though Pelfrey did have some good starts under the old administration)
• The starters would still be throwing fewer strikes, issuing more walks, and throwing fewer innings
• Castillo would still be playing at half speed
• The defense would still be shaky
• Delgado would not have turned around as dramatically

We can never know for sure what would have been. But I think there’s good reason to think that Manuel and Warthen did indeed instigate much of the Mets’ turnaround.

Daniel Murphy’s Slump

Murphy just had an 0-16 run with 7 strikeouts. Reviving comparisons to Jeff Duncan. In Duncan’s first 35 at bats he showed that he was a guy who could draw walks, bunt for hits, and get lucky finding some holes. The other teams adjusted. They brought the third baseman in, threw strikes, and waited for his luck to reverse. That was it for Jeff Duncan. Similarly, teams have adjusted to Murphy. They’re no longer treating him like a rookie who’ll chase bad pitches. They know he’s a very patient hitter who hits the ball hard the other way. So they’ve adjusted, throwing him strikes, and pitching him more inside. But I have a lot more confidence that Murphy can adjust back. Like Duncan, he’s showed that he can take a lot of pitches. Unlike Duncan, he’s showed that he can hit with authority up the middle and to the other side. Now the question is can he jump out early in the count, and make pitchers pay for fastballs on the inside part of the plate. In the first half of this season, as a 22-year-old in AA he showed he can hit for average and power. I don’t have the spray chart, but I have to assume a lot of the homers were pulled. His game winning double into the right field corner off Brad Lidge last night was a thing of beauty on so many levels. So I know it’s still far too early to tell on Murphy, but I remain quite bullish that he’s going to turn into the real deal. He’s very likely to get a spot on the 2009 roster. At the very least as a guy who can fill in at 2nd, 3rd, the outfield, and as a pinch hitter. I think it’s more likely he’ll be starting at Citi Field next year, at least against righties, either at second base or in left field. And where he starts may depend more on his teammates than it does on him.

The Walk-Off Offense

The Mets have a Walk-Off offense. And not in the good way of a lot of Walk Off wins. No, the Mets are the best team in baseball at scoring early, going home, and then losing. Tonight’s debacle was a paradigmatic game for this season’s game, and also a good reminder of what last year was like. Hot start, then sit back and watch the other team catch up.

Sure, there’s the bullpen side. The bullpen just blew their 10th 9th inning lead this year. Ouch. But tonight the bullpen gave up 3 runs in 7 and a third. Yes, they could have saved the game by holding the Phils to one run in 4 innings, but the bullpen shouldn’t get the blame on this one. There’s Pedro, giving up 5 in 5 innings.The starting rotation looking a little shakier with Maine on the DL and Martinez failing tonite.

But a big story here is the offense’s consistent late inning failures. I think the stat I saw showed the Mets as the second best team this decade in the early innings. But they get outscored late. 7 runs in the first 4 innings tonite. Then shut out for 9 innings.

Willie Randolph’s biggest complaint about this team last year was that there was no killer instinct. That they couldn’t finish things off.

I agree with the stats guys that the psychological facets of the game are generally grossly overstated, that we like humanizing the game by reading psychological reasons into statistical variances. But I’ve got to wonder about this one. Is there some mindset that the Mets have when the game starts that they don’t have later? And can that be fixed? Soon?!

David Wright: MVP Candidate?

Rob Neyer at ESPN listed his 4 leading candidates for NL MVP. David Wright was one of them. The biggest irony? Wright’s having his worst season. He has the lowest slugging percentage of his career, 30 points lower than last year. OBP only 3 points above his career low, 32 points lower than last year. Same caught stealing as each of last 2 years, but with only half as many steals as last year. RBI total is good, but that probably says more about Reyes than it does about him. Fielding percentage a bit up, Range Factor a bit down.

In fairness:

• Neyer thought he should win last year too. Mostly because Neyer park-adjusted away Rollins, Holiday, and Fielder’s statistical advantages.
• Neyer may be right. Wright’s having a very good year, just not quite as good as his other years, and significantly worse than last year.
• Neyer did say that he’d need to pick up his numbers a bit and lead the Mets to a division title for him to really have a chance. Last year he finished 4th largely because of the Mets’ historic collapse and the Phillies’ and Rockies’ historic comebacks. Had the Mets and Padres held on, Wright would have probably finished second only to Fielder.

The greatest thing about this is seeing other people’s comments that the Mets’ other 25 year old may be an even stronger candidate. Though for reasons that I think are mostly BS, Reyes has a bad rap. I love everything about Reyes, especially his happiness, enthusiasm and love of the game, but he’s picked up a bad reputation. And don’t look now, but Santana would be a Cy Young Award candidate if he were getting reasonable support from his offense and bullpen.

So — don’t look now, but the Mets have two 25 year-old MVP candidates and one of the best pitchers in the game. And some exciting rookies, the NL’s best starting rotation, and a one and a half game lead. Wow, how far we’ve come in the past 2 months. Remember when we didn’t even have an All Star, were under 500, and were baseball’s most disappointing team? That was less than 2 months ago. On July 4 we were 42-44. Let’s hope this never gets back there.

Tatis and Church

Tatis and Church each have 205 at bats right now. Their stats are frighteningly similar. They each have 42 singles, a triple and 10 homers. Church has one more double (for a total of 10) and one more RBI (36). They both have far too many strikeouts (Church has 50; Tatis 47) and far too few walks (19 for Church, 13 for Tatis). Sadly, those strikeout and walk totals increase the feeling that this is all an illusion, a statistical anomaly. Though Church did have 43 doubles last year, so maybe he really is still developing, and if he’s ever allowed to play again, maybe he will return to his early season form.