The 2008 Mets in Context

Each year from 2002-2004 the Mets finished at least 25 games back. The Randolph – Minaya era turned that around, improving from 20 games under .500 to 4 games over in their first year. Then 97-65 (103-69 if you include the postseason) and the verge of the pennant, and then a 33-17 start to ‘07. And then just like that it all fell apart. After that 130 – 82 stretch (.613 winning percentage) the Mets went 89-92 for the rest of Randolph’s tenure, including the infamous ‘07 collapse. The Mets ran their mediocre stretch 17 games into Jerry Manuel’s tenure, to reach 97 – 101. Then they turned it back around, going 47-29 through the end of the season. Or said a bit differently, they went on a 40-19 streak to take a 3 1/2 game lead with 17 to go, before going 7-10 to miss the playoffs.

The 2007 and 2008 collapses were far too similar for anybody to ignore: peaking their divisional lead with 17 to play and then immediately dropping, and culminating in the final weekend hosting the Marlins where they entered tied, lost the first (while the Phils or Brewers won) to drop one back, winning the next behind a tremendous pitching performance (while the Phils / Brewers lost) to tie it, and then losing the finale while the other team won to go home losers. While we’re at it, the final game was also similar to the last game of 2006, with Oliver Perez starting on 3 days rest and getting the no decision, Chavez making a dramatic catch to keep the game tied for the 7th inning stretch, the bullpen giving up 2 runs on homers, and finally ending the season with the tying run at the plate or on base.

Many have pointed out that the 2008 collapse was not as bad (7-10 is not 5-12, a 3 1/2 game lead is not a 7 game lead) and was more excusable (the 2008 team suffered far more injuries), but the biggest problem with both teams is that from June of 2007 through June of 2008 the Mets were a below 500 team. After playing 600 ball in 2006, the 2007-2008 Mets went 33-17, then 97-101, and finally 47-29.

So here’s my summary of 2008: The Mets were so bad in the first half of the year that even a fantastic turnaround left them with insufficient cushion for when they got some bad luck. Similarly, the 2007 analyses also over-focused on the 17 game collapse, ignoring the awful stretch that started at the end of May.

All those who chanted MVP for Carlos Delgado IMO missed the key point. Had anybody besides David Wright and Johan Santana played the entire season, the Mets would have clinched the division a few weeks ago, regardless of injuries.

I addressed this a bit in my post on the Manuel – Warthen turnaround. I think the ton of errors the Mets made during the dry spell compared to the great defense the Mets played after was symptomatic of a 208 game stretch of badly played baseball by what should have been a great team.

In short, the 08 Mets were done in by the following overlapping pieces, in order of importance:

• Dreadful, sloppy, uninspired play for the first half of the season when the Mets should have been building up a nice lead, and instead fell far behind
• A historically bad bullpen (despite a nice start by Wagner)
• Lots of injuries. Didn’t expect that Alou, Castillo, Pedro, El Duque, Duaner Sanchez, and Billy Wagner would all be 100% all season, but I (perhaps naively) expected more than we got. But then Ryan Church and John Maine. And then Tatis who replaced Pagan who replaced Alou. And Easley who replaced Castillo. In fairness, the Mets stars remained (relatively) healthy. I strongly suspect Beltran has a bum left leg that hurts him when hitting lefty, but that’s just me. As a whole the Mets’ 5 stars were enormous this year.

Back to the point of this post, the 2008 Mets in context. The dreadful 208 game stretch prevented the 2007 and 2008 Mets from doing what they were clearly talented enough to do. Going away (presumably) are Pedro, El Duque, Wagner, and Alou, freeing up about $28 million this offseason and Wagner’s money next offseason. One more year (at least) for Delgado.

On the other side, Pelfrey had a breakout year. Murphy was very promising, and will probably be the Mets’ second baseman next year. Nick Evans will probably get a lot of starts with the Mets next year, and in 2010 he may compete with Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church for a corner outfield spot and with Mike Carp for first base.

Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Santana make a remarkable group of core stars who should be the nucleus of this team for at least another three years, hopefully much longer. Santana, Pelfrey, and a hopefully healthy John Maine should make a very impressive top of the rotation. The position players may be the best in the NL at the plate, on the basepaths, and on defense. Wagner and Castillo have the only bad contracts, and the  damage there is limited. I assume after this year’s problems the Mets will invest seriously in their bullpen, and they need to do something for the bottom of their rotation.

2007 and 2008 were lost years, years that the Mets should have been the best team in the NL but weren’t. The biggest problem was neither injuries nor nerves, but rather an extended bout of uninspired play. Somebody really should study why the Mets went from great to lousy beginning May 30, 2007. Maybe it’s the Benitez curse: the night before the slide the Mets had a dramatic 12 inning victory where Reyes got the unfairly despised former Met reliver to balk him home with the tying run and then Delgado hit the next pitch over the fence to end the game.

Looking forward: with their 25 year old phenoms, Santana, Beltran, Maine, Pelfrey, and perhaps Murphy, the Mets should have the core to be the team they should have been the past 2 years — and maybe even better.