Two excellent columnists just came out with seemingly opposite takes on Carlos Beltrans’ season.
Lupica: Beltran is New York baseball’s biggest offensive disappointment calls Beltran
“the biggest offensive disappointment in town, as much of an underproducer as any big name or big ticket or big player either New York team has.”
Tim Marchman’s Mets Have Problems, but Beltran Isn’t One of Them writes
“Beltran is having yet another superb season … Even on a bad day, Beltran doesn’t rate in the top 50 [of the Mets problems].”
And yet Lupica and Marchman seem to agree on most essential points. Lupica concedes that Beltran
“has a world of talent, hits from both sides of the plate, is a good teammate, runs down balls in the outfield with grace.”
Marchman concedes
“Beltran isn’t, true, having the kind of season he had two years ago.”
They agree on the most basic points:
- Beltran is generally underrated, as he is far more valuable than his triple crown stats indicate
- Beltran is not performing up to his previously established levels
Marchman makes a strong case that even guys like Lupica grossly underestimate Beltran’s contributions through defense, baserunning, etc.
But Marchman really understates Beltran’s underperformance this year. He compares Beltran’s stats to the average center fielder. His limited concession that Beltran’s stats are worse than his 2006 stats grossly understates the truth. Beltran had a 911 OPS his last full season in KC, then 901 in KC, 926 in Houston, and had an (obviously unmaintainable) 1591 postseason OPS. He’s at 818 this year. Other than his injured 2005 season, this is the 31 year old’s worst year, by far, since 2000.
So while you have to concede some of Marchman’s points, that even in his off year Beltran is a damn good player, he’s wrong for disagreeing with Lupica’s column. The Mets put a good chunk of their budget into Beltran’s contract. Beltran’s performance is far better than the average center fielder’s, but far worse than the expectations for Beltran. Yes, the Mets have plenty of problems, some of them bigger than Beltran. But Beltran is New York baseball’s biggest offensive disappointment, and if he can return to his career numbers he will greatly help the Mets’ pennant quest.
Posted by Gil Reich 
